moody's corporate default and recovery rates 2020 pdf

In other words, the use of a rating category suggests that transitions, for example, to 'AA' from 'AA-' or to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-', are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Both segments were facing a decline in demand, made worse by the looming recession and coronavirus pandemic. On Sept. 9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Luxembourg-based global airport ground handler Swissport Group S.a.r.l to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the issuer completed issuing 230 million super senior secured debt for liquidity purposes and was planning to issue another 70 million. This figure includes new ratings subsequent to a prior default--such as after distressed exchanges. On Aug. 26, 2020, we raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC' from 'SD'. The issuer is exploring other strategic alternatives as liquidity remains constrained. Given this track record, monitoring the trends of newly assigned ratings could prove useful in anticipating future default activity, based on the observation that years with high numbers of new 'B-' and lower ratings will likely be followed by increased default risk. Multiyear transitions. On Oct. 13, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Ireland-based manufacturer and distributer of specialty pharmaceutical products Mallinckrodt PLC to 'D' from 'CCC' after the issuer announced that it voluntarily initiated Chapter 11 proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware to modify its capital structure, including to restructure portions of its debt and resolve several billion dollars of potential legal liabilities. On April 15, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Luxembourg-based telecom service provider Intelsat S.A. to 'SD' from 'CCC+' after the issuer failed to pay semiannual interest payments on unsecured debt. Table 8 provides a list of all the publicly rated companies that defaulted in 2020. Estimated 5-year default probabilities are on average 67% higher than default probabilities obtained using the standard 40% recovery assumption. On May 25, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit rating on U.K.-based foreign-exchange service provider Travelex Holdings Ltd. to 'D' from 'CCC' after the issuer failed to make the interest payments on its senior secured notes. These default rates are the same that appear in table 24 and are average cumulative default rates conditional on survival. The transactions announced represented about 23% of total first- and second-lien term loans. We treat this transaction as distressed since the investors did not receive the originally promised amount. Of these new issuers, 78% were rated speculative grade. This preview shows page 40 - 41 out of 49 pages. On July 30, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew the ratings on the issuer. On July 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Noble to 'D' from 'CCC-' as the company skipped the interest payment on its 7.75% senior notes due 2024. Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. If these default rate forecasts crystalize, the pandemic induced default cycle will be relatively mild comparing with prior recessionary default cycles whose peaks ranged from 9.7% to 13.3%. Historically, nonfinancial defaulters tend to have a much smoother and shorter path to default (see chart 12). On Oct. 9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Brazil-based telecom operator Oi S.A. to 'SD' from 'CC' after the issuer announced that the judicial court ratified the amendment to the company's judicial reorganization plan, which was approved by the majority of its creditholders on Sept. 8, 2020. This study analyzes the rating histories of 21,693 companies that S&P Global Ratings rated as of Dec. 31, 1980, or that were first rated between that date and Dec. 31, 2020. articles On May 6, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings on the issuer. The issuer also conveyed that it entered into a lock-up agreement with its senior secured lenders and was in talks on a restructuring plan. On Feb. 14, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Kansas-based Pizza Hut restaurants franchise operator NPC International Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the company decided not to make interest payments due Jan. 31, 2020. On Feb. 7, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Commercial Barge Line Co. to 'D' from 'CC' after its subsidiary, American Commercial Lines Inc., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with the Southern District of Texas. The performance of Moody's corporate debt ratings - Q4 2022 - Excel supplement MOODY'S . Back in December, Moody's Investors Servicepegged the 2017 default rate for speculative-grade debt in the U.S. at 4% by year-end, down from 5.6%. On June 18, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Lewisville, Texas-based ASP MCS Acquisition Corp. (MCS) to 'D' from 'CCC' after the company missed its June 15 interest payment on its secured term loan due 2024. Moody's Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby disclosesthat most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody's Investors Service, Inc. The median rating for all recently defaulted entities was solidly in the speculative-grade category in the seven years preceding default, and for all of that period, it was at least one notch below that of the long-term equivalent. On Nov. 23, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew the issuer credit rating at the issuer's request. This helps explain the resemblance between the annual default rates of nonfinancial entities and those of the speculative-grade segment as a whole, which certainly contributes to the vast differences between cumulative default rates across financial and nonfinancial sectors (see table 16). The new notes are in a payment favorable position. Earlier, on Dec. 5, 2019, we lowered the rating on the company to 'CCC+' from 'B' because it was facing heightened risk in addressing the US$550 million secured notes maturing in November 2022. For example, the share of speculative-grade ratings increased in the U.S. beginning in 2002. Over the long term, defaults in nonfinancial sectors have tended to be more cyclical than defaults in the financial sectors. Esma50 165 2229 TRV 2 22. Some methods for calculating default and rating transition rates might charge defaults against only the initial rating on the issuer, ignoring more recent rating changes that supply more current information. On Feb. 21, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer ratings to 'CCC-' from 'SD', after the issuer reached a settlement on the US$350 million notes via a partial exchange, and the new shareholder Beijing Energy Group Co. Ltd. can provide credit enhancements. Crew Group Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC-' following the company's announced petitions filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Many events over the long term have contributed to the decline of global 'AAA' rated issuers. The company separately raised a bridge loan in April 2020 that required it to file a restructuring support agreement by June 15, 2020. A total of 3,098 defaults have been recorded globally since 1981. The average amount of debt per defaulter in 2020 was the same as in 2019: $1.6 billion. On Dec. 9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Tennessee-based health care services provider Community Health Systems Inc. to 'SD' from 'CC'. This caused high liquidity constraints for Hertz. Therefore, every update revises results back to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1980, so as to avoid continuity problems. Table 11 presents the average and median times to default from each rating category for all subsequent ratings. On March 18, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised its ratings on the issuer to 'CCC' from 'SD', reflecting our view that there was a possibility of additional debt restructuring. On April 6, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Texas-headquartered home health provider BW Homecare Holdings LLC to 'SD' from 'CCC'. On Sept. 14, 2020, we withdrew the issuer credit ratings on the company at its request. These factors, combined with asset managers' growing tolerance for investing in lower-rated companies, leave just a handful of the highest-rated entities. Earlier, on June 14, 2016, S&P Global Ratings withdrew the issuer credit rating at the issuer's request. In 2005, the speculative-grade share of European corporate ratings peaked near 21%, and once the cycle turned, the European speculative-grade default rate peaked at 9.9% in November 2009. Earlier, on April 20, 2020, we lowered our issuer credit rating on Valaris to 'CCC-' from 'CCC+' following the collapse in oil prices that led to a sharp drop in demand for all oilfield services, and the offshore activity that was expected to be weak over at least the next two years, given the higher cost, higher operating risk, and longer payback periods for offshore projects relative to onshore plays. On July 6, 2020, we raised our issue credit rating on Serta Simmons to 'CCC+' from 'SD', reflecting the improved liquidity profile, although the capital structure is still highly leveraged, and the company amended and extended its asset-based lending credit facility maturity to August 2023 from November 2021. Each issuer is likely to be captured multiple times, in line with its migration from one rating to another, so the total count in table 13 is different from that in table 12. Source: Moody's Investors Service, "Moody's Corporate Default & Recovery Rates Study 2019" Senior Secured Loans Equity Unsecured Debt (ie, high yield bonds) Subordinated Bonds Senior Unsecured Bonds Loans 28.0% 47.0% 80.0% Recovery Rate 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Wells Fargo, March 31, 2020 Corporate Power; Enforceability : 35 : 3.3 : Company Board Approval; Fairness Opinion; Anti-Takeover Laws : 36 : . An issuer that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated. The global trailing-12-month speculative-grade default rate rose to 5.5% at the end of 2020--above its annual average of 4% (since 1981)--from 2.5% in 2019. On May 26, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Oklahoma-based oil and gas exploration and production company Unit Corp. to 'D' from 'CC' after the issuer reorganized under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Following Acharya et al. The principal liquidity sources for the issuer involves US$48 million cash on hand and about US$35 million to US$55 million available in revolving credits. bp by year-end 2020. The rating action followed the company's distressed exchange after repaying only a portion of amount outstanding on its 1.5-lien notes. While these payments would have a higher interest rate, we considered this modification a selective default since investors were receiving less than they were originally promised under the security, partly because the amendment would delay the timing of the interest payments. On Jan. 13, 2021, we raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' form 'SD' after the issuer retired a huge sum of principal in second half of 2020, approximately US$550 million by early December 2020. We deem 'D', 'SD', and 'R' issuer ratings to be defaults for the purposes of this study. On April 8, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Texas-based exploration and production company SPR Holdings LLC to 'D' from 'CCC+' after the issuer missed an interest payment due April 1, 2020. Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions. This default and rating transition study includes industrials, utilities, financial institutions (banks, brokerages, asset managers, and other financial entities), and insurance companies globally with long-term local currency ratings from S&P Global Ratings. The fixed rate loan and the floating rates loans were repurchased at 85% and 84.875% of the original price, respectively. On Dec. 2, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Houston-based oil and gas exploration and production company Callon Petroleum Co. to 'SD' from 'CC' following a distressed exchange wherein it exchanged US$217 million of new 9% second-lien notes due 2025 for US$389 million of its existing unsecured notes. The Content is provided on an as is basis. On April 1, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Colorado-based crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company Whiting Petroleum Corp to 'D' from 'CCC+' after the issuer filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The share of management teams citing labor shortages, now at less than a third of the peak in 3Q 2021, indicates loosening in the jobs market. expect solid corporate bond issuance and low defaults. On Feb. 21, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on China-based high technology service provider Tunghsu Group Co. Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the issuer missed interest and principal payments on three onshore bonds. This transaction was viewed as distressed because the exchange was at a much discounted rate, of about 70 cents on a dollar. Sources: StepStone Group, CS HY Index, Barclays US IG, Moody's, Cliffwater, Refinitiv LPC as of December 2022. If corporate ratings were perfectly rank ordered so that all defaults occurred only among the lowest-rated entities, the curve would capture all of the area above the diagonal on the graph (the ideal curve), and its Gini coefficient would be 1 (see chart 31). We believe this bankruptcy filing is due to the combined effect of the coronavirus pandemic and the company's weak performance in 2019. prior to May 2014, Kathrin was a lead analyst in Moody's EMEA Corporate Finance Group in Frankfurt, Germany, covering a diverse set of heavy industrial corporations across . Meaningfully lower yoy default rates in 2021 are expected for the energy and retail industries, which produced a significant volume of defaults over the prior five years. On Sept. 21, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the long-term issuer credit rating on Norway-based oilfield services provider PGS ASA to 'SD' from 'CCC' after it missed a principal repayment. On June 18, 2020, we raised the issuer credit rating on Forum to 'CCC-' from 'SD', reflecting our forward-looking opinion on its creditworthiness. Tunghsu also signed a letter of intent to acquire a 26%-38% stake in Alderon Iron Ore Corp., which would be conducted by its subsidiary. The negative outlook reflects our view of the company's unsustainable capital structure and heavy debt service burden, and our belief that Revlon could default on its debt obligations in the upcoming quarters. Earlier, on March 19, 2020, we lowered the issuer credit rating on Libbey to 'CCC' from 'B-' on constrained liquidity and less likelihood of refinancing its term loans. On Oct. 8, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Oklahoma-based oil and gas exploration and production company Ascent Resources Utica Holdings LLC to 'SD' from 'CC' after the issuer announced the expiration of its offer to exchange its 2022 senior notes for a combination of a new second-lien term loan due 2025 and new senior notes due 2027. On June 4, 2020, we withdrew the ratings on the issuer because of insufficient information to continue the surveillance of the ratings. 'R' (regulatory intervention) indicates that an obligor is under regulatory supervision owing to its financial condition. On Nov. 26, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on U.K.-based cinema operator Cineworld Group PLC to 'SD' from 'CCC-' following its distressed debt issuance transaction. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. All companies included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. On Sept. 14, 2020, we withdrew our ratings on the company. The issuer entered into a forbearance agreement for its term loan, which allowed it to defer the interest and principal payments for 30 days until April 30, 2020. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. As a result, the noteholders received less than the original promise. On Oct. 30, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' following the completion of the distressed exchange. Data Report. This brought the ratio of downgrades to upgrades to a historical high of 6.6 (see table 6). S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. However, the speculative-grade share of both the financial and nonfinancial sectors has been growing in recent years. An obligor is considered in default unless S&P Global Ratings believes that such payments will be made within five business days of the due date in the absence of a stated grace period, or within the earlier of the stated grace period or 30 calendar days. The filing preceded Covia's entry into a restructuring support agreement with its lenders, which was to involve a comprehensive restructuring of the company's debt against the backdrop of energy price shocks and the recession caused by the global pandemic. Later, on Aug. 11, 2020, we withdrew our issuer credit ratings on the company at its request. With the strongly improved U.S. economic outlook for 2021, the speculative-grade negative . On July 7, 2020, we lowered the issuer credit rating on Forum to 'CC' from 'CCC-' following the issuer's announcement to exchange its remaining $328 million of 6.25% senior unsecured notes due October 2021. All of S&P Global Ratings Research's default studies have found a clear correlation between ratings and defaults: The higher the rating, the lower the observed frequency of default, and vice versa. On July 2, 2020, we raised our issuer credit rating on BLY to 'CCC+' from 'SD' as the company completed amending interest payments on its senior secured notes to PIK from cash for 2020. On May 27, 2020, we lowered our ratings on the issuer to 'D' from 'SD' after it filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, and subsequently on June 26, 2020, we withdrew our credit ratings. Financial services companies are typically more sensitive to sudden declines in investor and stakeholder confidence than nonfinancial companies, which can contribute to a rapid decline in funding liquidity and credit quality. On Nov. 18, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew the issuer credit rating at the issuer's request. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2018 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2020. On June 24, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its issuer credit rating at the company's request. We are expecting that the issuer will be able to generate sufficient cash for debt repayment, though times are challenging. Europe followed with 42 defaults, emerging markets with 28, and the other developed region (Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand) with 10. esgSubNav, Discover more about S&P Globals offerings. The issuer has long struggled to adapt to the business model in a challenging domestic department store space, which shrank further because of the coronavirus pandemic. Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data, which may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity. Default and recovery rates for sustainable project finance bank loans, 1983-2020: 16 Feb 2023 . An obligor rated 'SD' (selective default) or 'D' (default) is in default on one or more of its financial obligations, including rated and unrated financial obligations but excluding hybrid instruments classified as regulatory capital or in nonpayment according to terms. The Default & Recovery Database provides access to the most comprehensive default dataset in the market. On Aug. 24, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit ratings to 'D' from 'SD' after Travelex completed its restructuring plan, including the write-off of 225 million of debt. In turn, this can result in a relatively fast descent into default (see chart 11). On May 4, 2020, we raised the credit ratings to 'CCC' from 'SD' after the reduction of debt by approximately US$329 million. We calculated all default rates on an issuer-weighted basis. On Dec. 4, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit rating to 'D' from 'SD' after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. For these counts of large downgrades, we include movements to 'D' (default) along with what we normally report as downgrades (that is, downward movements between active ratings). On July 23, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating on the issuer to 'D' from 'CCC-' upon the company filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, following which, on Jan. 5, 2021, the ratings on the issuer were withdrawn. Second-lien lenders agreed to convert scheduled cash interest payments to payment-in-kind (PIK) interest for three quarters (starting Sept. 30, 2020). On June 1, 2020, we lowered the credit ratings to 'D' after the issuer commenced Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, and subsequently on June 25, 2020, the ratings were withdrawn at the issuer's request. Many practitioners use statistics from this default study to estimate the "probability of default" and "probability of rating transition." Similarly, the second- and third-year conditional marginal averages--shown in the "Summary statistics" section at the bottom portion of the table--were 3.61% for the first 39 pools (96.39% of those companies that did not default in the first year survived the second year) and 3.23% for the first 38 pools (96.77% of those companies that did not default by the second year survived the third year), respectively. "ESPP" means the Company's 2020 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, . On Nov. 20, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Minnesota-based exploration and production (E&P) company Northern Oil and Gas Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC+' after the issuer disclosed debt exchanges, which over the past few quarters represent a meaningful amount of the original principal. On March 20, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Kazakhstan-based Grain Insurance Co. JSC to 'D' from 'B' after the issuer missed payments to the counterparties. On July 31, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' on the basis of increased liquidity. On Aug. 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings on the issuer. In light of our expectation of a continued economic recovery and accommodative funding conditions in the coming year, Moody's Analytics Credit Transition Model projects the global default rate will fall to 1.7% at the end of this year. On March 12, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Illinois-based engineered fastener distributor Optimas OE Solutions Holding LLC to 'SD' from 'CCC+'. The 50.3% at the end of 2020 does represent an all-time high, albeit by a margin of only 0.1%. Defaults reached a multiyear high in 2020, but this was largely limited to nonfinancial corporates. As has been the case for an extended period, the leisure time and media sector has by far the highest proportion of speculative-grade ratings, with 83.3% of its issuers in this rating category in 2020. The issuer also amended the terms of its first- and second-lien credit agreements to extend the maturity of revolving credit and temporary allow itself to make partial PIK interest payments. On Jan. 9, 2019, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Missouri-based retailer Moran Foods LLC (SAL Acquisition Corp.) to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the company elected not to make an interest payment due Dec. 31, 2019, while entering into a forbearance agreement. On May 11, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Chinese furniture maker Yihua Enterprise (Group) Co. Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the issuer failed to make interest payment on its domestic medium-term notes due 2022. content The issuer with the longest time to default in 2020 was U.S.-based Revlon Inc., with an initial issuer credit rating of 'AA' as of Dec. 31, 1980, 39.4 years before the rating was lowered to 'SD' (selective default) in May 2020. The transaction was viewed as distressed because the remaining US$42 million will now become subordinated, while the noteholders who agreed to the exchange will receive US$850 per US$1,000 principal amount. On Jan. 21, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Panda Green Energy Group Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CC' on completion of a distressed exchange offer on its U.S. bonds due in January 2020. However, reported average ultimate recoveries [2] included in our data set of unrated project finance bank loans remained stable at 76.8% (Moody's) for the period 1983-2020. On July 20, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating to 'D' from 'SD' after the company filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. In this new report, Moody's forecasts that the rate will peak at 7.3% in March 2021, and then decline to 4.7% by December. S&P Global Ratings Research conducts its default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. On Jan. 19, 2020, The Krystal Co. defaulted after the company filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 with the Northern District of Georgia. As a result, the trustee placed the issuer into receivership (with KordaMentha as receivers). On May 12, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit rating on Texas-based oil and gas exploration and production company Fieldwood Energy LLC to 'D' from 'CCC' after the issuer failed to make the interest payments on its first- and second-lien term loans. Qinghai Provincial Investment Group Co. Ltd. APC Automotive Technologies Intermediate Holdings LLC. Later, on Sept. 16, 2020, we withdrew the issuer credit ratings on the company at its request. Forest and building products/homebuilders. The date the debtor filed for, or was forced into, bankruptcy. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. On Feb. 14, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Italy-based maritime transportation services Moby SpA to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the company entered into a standstill agreement to not pay scheduled payments in mid-February.

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